Scientific Research Methodology Assignment -

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Task - Write a Research Proposal on given topic.

Topic - Effect of CoronaVirus on the Economy of Middle East Countries

Answer - Research Proposal

1. Introduction

In the present time, the whole world has been effected under the influence of coronavirus, and the Middle East countries are no exception. It is to be noted that the first case of COVID-19 among humans was observed in early December 2019 (Novel, 2020). Later it was declared as a Global Health emergency by the WHO as there is a risk of this infection becoming a pandemic if it is not controlled. In this modern time, the economies of the Middle East countries are linked with each other and with the rest of the world through globalization. Hence, the approach of restraining the virus through a lockdown and restricting the import and export-related activities. Under the influence of the coronavirus pandemic and restrictions in trade, most of the Middle East countries are facing the recession (Ahani, & Nilashi, 2020). As a result of this economic crisis, there has been a sudden drop in the price of oil which further ignited this pandemic situation. It is to be noted that the coronavirus situation has widened economic gaps within these countries. There are some Middle East countries like UAE which have been successfully able to move ahead of the curve and successfully able to reduce the rate of infection. On the other hand, countries like Turkey and Iran hub been unsuccessful in controlling the infection due to their delayed, insufficient and fragmented response. This eventually made these countries to become the epicenter for the spread of this virus. Similarly the countries like Yemen, Libya, Aden, and Tripoli (Williams, & Kayaoglu, 2020). It is evident that tens of thousands got infected from this virus and several thousand out of this population lost their lives. It has been identified that Covid-19 has created a situation of sectarianism and tension within the secularists and Islamists. This situation eventually led to governance failure and enhanced the economic gap between the states. It is evident that after this pandemic, the economic situation of these Middle East countries will not be the same as earlier (Ozili, & Arun, 2020).

The aim of the research work is to understand the impact of coronavirus on the economy of Middle East countries.

The research question which is required to be solved in this report is based on;

• How does Coronavirus deteriorate the economy of Middle East countries?
• What are the loopholes by the government of these countries which led to economic downfall?

Hence, the objective of the research is to identify the relationship between coronavirus and the economy of Middle East countries, and also derive solutions to the research questions.

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2. Literature review

Actions of different Middle East countries towards Coronavirus

In the United Arab Emirates, the country has implemented social distancing during the initial stage of the infection. Saudi Arabia on the other hand incorporated aggressive approaches to reduce the spread of the virus, which includes a curfew system from the dusk to dawn. Similarly, Riyadh has also adopted some of the radical measures for avoiding the religious pilgrimage the major holiest places for Islam; Mecca and Medina. Unlike these strong measures adopted by UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh, the control measures adopted in Iran was found to be a failed initiative (Masoud, 2020). The measures adopted by Iran was late, which was due to their initial denials. This belated response in Iran has turned it to be the epicenter for the Covid-19 pandemic. In Iran, the first reported case of this virus infection was found to be in the holy city of Qom (Ahani et al, 2020). In this holy city of Iran, two Shia pilgrims are found to lose their life due to Covid-19. Instead of focusing on minimizing this spread of the virus, Tehran has decided to take forward its parliamentary election on 21st February 2020 in a dubious attempt and support their legitimacy (Zaremba, Kizys, Aharon, & Demir, 2020). As a result of this, each and every province along with all the cities in Tehran are highly affected by this Coronavirus. This lack of awareness in Tehran also led to the spread of infection to other neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Lebanon, Kuwait, and Bahrain (Ahani et al, 2020). The failure in controlling the virus spread are presented as an excuse by the leaders in Iran and Tehran and further used it to politicized for gaining International relief. In this race, Turkey was also found to how highest acceleration of Covid-19 cases in its region (Williams et al, 2020). This increase in infection cases in Turkey was primarily due to its mismanaged Health System. They did not prevented any kind of social mobility and the tasting of individuals was wondering restricted to those individuals who have traveled abroad (Williams et al, 2020). For this reason the densely populated cities in Turkey highly affected and vulnerable to this coronavirus. In this frame of reference, it is to be noted that approximately 60% of the Covid-19 cases was found in the commercial city of Istanbul (Moghadami, Hassanzadeh, Hedayati, & Malekolkalami, 2020). It needs to be noted that almost 20% of the population of Turkey resides in Istanbul. This sudden increase in the COVID-19 cases in Turkey has also shaken the Healthcare System of the country, as there was a lack of beds, equipment like ventilators, PPE kits, and professional healthcare workers. Under this pandemic circumstance, the hospitals and healthcare workers have not been prepared in advance, specifically for two and a half months since the emergence of the virus in China (Rahmanian, Rabiee, & Sharifi, 2020).

Economic impact

It is evident that Qatar has the highest per capita income in the whole world and the country is full of skyscrapers. It is also noteworthy that Qatar has one of the excellent healthcare systems for its people. It has become easier for the country to control the coronavirus infection. Despite having excellent health care and economic system, it is also to be noted that Qatar has approximately 85% of residents as foreign migrants who reside in unhealthy conditions and have high potential to spread the infection (Ozili et al, 2020). In this frame of reference, it is identified that Doha has already closed off the quarters of migrants to restrict the spread of infection which in turn has created tension in the country (Nicola, Alsafi, Sohrabi, Kerwan, and Al-Jabir, 2020). A similar situation is also faced in the Al Qaif province of Saudi Arabia. This province is majorly occupied by the Shia Muslims. A lockdown situation was imposed in this province by Riyadh which in turn created an unfair situation for the Shia residents. Eventually, this lockdown situation created a conflict situation between the Shia and Sunni within the kingdom (Williams et al, 2020). These conflicts within the countries have also created an adverse impact on the nation's economic condition. It is highlighted by Nicola et al (2020), that in countries lift the lockdown and restrictions are imposed by the government, then it works in an efficient way. These actions of the government are perceived as legitimate to be in accordance with the national interest.

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Apart from the loss of human lives, there has been a significant impact on the economic capacity of these countries as the capital market has been shaken (Nicola et al, 2020). These economic crisis has been primarily due to the loss of tourists, and drop in oil prices. The loss of tourism is basically due to the fear among people to get the infection and the ban on flights, especially on international flights. The primary buyers of oil from Dubai are the Chinese, who hold the major portion in the real estate transaction (Zaremba et al, 2020). Since China is still in the recovering state from coronavirus, the purchase of oil has been postponed. This action of China in turn has affected the bubble economy of Dubai, even before the emergence of the virus to the country (Ranjan, & Bisht, 2020). This situation eventually gave rise to the economic rise to economic catastrophe. Other factors that affected the economy of UAE the cancellation of Expo 2020, which was a great source of trading for the country. In this Expo 2020, Erie as expected to attract approximately 25 million tourists in October 2020 (Nicola et al, 2020). Similarly, Saudi Arabia also prohibited the entry of thousands of haj pilgrimage, which eventually resulted in the loss of millions of dollars for both the states. In context to the pilgrimage, Ranjan et al (2020) highlight that Saudi Arabia receives almost 20 million religious pilgrims per year. Besides UAE and Saudi Arabia, Egypt has lost almost US$1 billion each year from the tourist revenue. Oil is the major source of export in the Gulf countries. Nicola et al (2020) have stated that even before the oil barrel has dropped down, due to shale oil production and the availability of an alternative renewable source of energy by the US. Even, the failure in the mutual agreement between OPEC and Russia is also another reason for the freefall in oil cost. Later, under the influence of coronavirus pandemic, the demand for oil almost dried up which in turn dropped down its price. In this frame of reference, Ranjan et al (2020) have highlighted that by march 2020 the price of a barrel of crude has reached East US$31.35. It needs to be noted that the price of the same quantity of oil at the beginning of the year was almost US$60 (Aloui, Goutte, Guesmi, & Hchaichi, 2020). The traders of oil expect that the price of oil per barrel will reach US$40 by December 2020. Despite a small increase in price, it is noteworthy that this amount is much lower than the break-even point for the oil producers in the Gulf countries. This sudden drop in oil prices has created political instability. The government is bound to impose a tax on its citizens to maintain its economic stability (Rahmanian et al, 2020).

3. Methodology

Research design

In consideration of the research objectives; identifying the impact of coronavirus on the economy of Middle East countries, the most appropriate research design is the exploratory research design. The objective of selecting this research design is that it has limited research studies that can be considered for reference. Since the world is facing coronavirus for the first time and that is limited research work available on the given topic as secondary resources, therefore exploratory research design is considered to be the most appropriate in the present study (Nicola et al, 2020). This research design is usually unstructured and informal in nature. In the current research work, exploratory research design acts as a tool to conduct initial research which eventually facilitates a theoretical hypothetical perspective to the given research question (Rahmanian et al, 2020).

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Data collection procedure

The majority of the population involved in this research work the people of the Middle East, especially which are highly affected by the coronavirus. In order to collect data, the researcher will obtain requisite data through online resources like peer-reviewed articles, online newspapers, television, peer-reviewed journals, blogs, forums, and webpages. The prime reason for adopting and evaluating only secondary resources is that collecting primary resources through interviews or questionnaires is not possible in the current pandemic situation (Nicola et al, 2020). Despite the fact that interviews and questionnaires can be conducted online, still it requires a physical presence to search for participants and convince them to participate. In the case of the secondary resources, all the relevant research work conducted on the given topic will be searched and further analyzed. Another objective behind using secondary data is to gain a more accurate and proper outcome.

The theoretical/conceptual framework

This theoretical framework illustrates the different fields which are affected under the effect of coronavirus. These fields have significant contribution towards the economy of the Middle East countries. The fields which are mostly affected include; (i) decrease in the price of oil due to less demand and restriction in trade, (ii) reduction in the number of tourists and pilgrimsfor limiting the spread of the virus, (iii) shut down of flights, shopping malls, cinema halls, and major factories under the influence of lockdown (Ranjan et al, 2020). All these factors contribute a huge loss to economy of the Middle East countries, which requires years for replenishment.

Data analysis

After the collection of data from different secondary sources, it will be further compiled for conducting evaluation. analysis of the information gained from different peer-reviewed sources will be done through the help of descriptive statistics such as bar graphs and pie charts, which will help in revealing a correlation between the data collected. It will help in deriving a clear conclusion and the relationship between the coronavirus and economy of Middle East countries (Nicola et al, 2020). It is to be noted that such types of data analysis techniques are much more efficient than using estimation and tables. In this family preference that the graph will be designed by observing the secondary data and accordingly conclusion will be formulated results of the research problem (Aloui et al, 2020).

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4. Ethical considerations and procedures

As the research work is based on the analysis of secondary resources, therefore the resources used will be highlighted in the "reference" section. All the participants involved in the research work will be acknowledged and also provided with equal credit (Nicola et al, 2020). The information which is collected in raw format will be preserved in the institutional database, for future researchwork. This approach not only helps in easy tracing out of data but also helps in retrieving similar information for future research work. Of note, none of the information gathered will be discarded until it is completely contradicting the scope of the present research objective. It is noteworthy that the research work will not include any kind of self-hypothetical conclusion (Ozili et al, 2020). In this frame of reference, have used to be noted that all the information presented in the report will be cross-checked and compared with other secondary sources. Confidentiality of any kind of sensitive report related to any particular nation will be maintained Finally, the data presented in the report will not include any kind of copy-paste activity. Hence, it can be said that the research report will not include any kind of plagiarism.

5. Time scale

6. Resources

The secondary information which is used for this research topic is collected from different resources such as online websites, peer-reviewed articles, and blogs. In order to search for authenticating articles, Google Scholar will be used. In addition to this, the government, as well as non-government websites, will be used to retrieve information (Nicola et al, 2020). In addition to this Microsoft Word and Excel will be used for preparing the report. In addition to this software, a PC or laptop will also be required to search and type the requisite information in the research and accordingly design a pie chart or bar graph. An internet connection is also required in the PC to search for different articles for conducting the research (Williams et al, 2020).

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