MBA 723 - Managerial Economics, Franklin University, USA
Currency and Country Risk Analysis
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Question 1: For your chosen country identify its currency's name and trading symbol below.
Answer:
|
Country
|
Currency
|
Trading Symbol
|
|
THAILAND
|
Thai Bhat
|
THB
|
a. Research the exchange rate over the past 12 months between the U.S. dollar and the currency you have chosen above and complete the tables below.
Answer:
|
Currency
|
Today's Date
|
Today's Spot Exchange Rate in American terms, i.e., USD per one unit of foreign currency
|
Today's Spot Exchange Rate in European terms, i.e., one unit of foreign currency per USD
|
|
Thai Bhat
|
06 -July -2019
|
1 THB = 0.03249 USD
|
1 USD = 30.6759 THB
|
b. In completing the table below express your answers in EITHER American or European terms.
Answer:
|
Today's Exchange Rate
|
1 USD = 30.6759 THB
|
|
Exchange Rate One Year Ago
|
1 USD = 33.18 THB
|
|
Percentage Change over Past Year
|
7.54 %
|
|
52-Week High in Past Year
|
33.480
|
|
52-Week Low in Past Year
|
30.580
|
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Question 2: For your selected country provide the following data.
Answer:
|
In USD
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
|
Balance of Trade
|
-1.5179 Billion
|
0.1 Billion
|
17.2 Billion
|
26.8 Billion
|
|
Current account balances
|
-1.698 Billion
|
-4.9 Billion
|
15.2 Billion
|
32.1 Billion
|
|
Portfolio investments
|
-3.398 Billion
|
4.766 Billion
|
12.013 Billion
|
16.508 Billion
|
|
Foreign direct investment
|
12.899 Billion
|
15.936 Billion
|
4.975 Billion
|
8.928 Billion
|
|
Official monetary reserves
|
5.265 Billion
|
-5.049 Billion
|
-1.21 Billion
|
5.859 Billion
|
Be sure to identify the units of currency in which the data is expressed and whether ‘000 or more digits are omitted.
Question 3: Identify the currency's classification according to the IMF's table of Exchange Rate Arrangements.
Answer:
|
Currency Chosen
|
Exchange Rate Arrangement
|
|
Thailand
|
Free Floating - Inflation Targeting Framework
|
Question 4: Consider the data above and your prior analyses on your chosen country and answer the following questions:
i. How would you assess the economy's performance in the recent past?
Answer: The country is an developing country and share as on date an instable position mainly because of the population growth and reduction in the GDP per capita. On the more, the unemployment rate has reduced as well as the inflation rate is also increasing on a constant rate.
ii. What are the likely effects on the currency short-term (over the next year) of the trends in the macroeconomic data?
Answer: Looking at the market conditions of the 2019 and 2020 the currency has gradually improved as a matter of fact dollar percentage have improved by at least by 5 percent. On the more, the exports have improved as well as the wages are also up for improvement.
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iii. Would you invest in the economy in the short-term (over the next year) and/or medium term (over the next three years)? Explain.
Answer: Considering the future years in terms with 2019 and 2020 BAHT is looking to a call of improvement and considered as an Strong Baht. Further, the inflation rate is also expected to take a slow rate and therefore, it is looking advisable to invest in the economy in the short-term (over the next year) and/or medium term (over the next three years).
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