Developing Forecasting Procedures For Service Station
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Question 1. Develop a forecasting procedure for this service station. Why did you select this method?
Answer: 87-Octane, 89-Octane, 92-Octane and diesel fuels are always in high demand in the market. It is of much significance to note that fuel being one of the most used natural resources, managers avoid stock out. The forecasting procedure requires planning which would actually help World to maintain the service station to have adequate supply of these above mentioned gases. It is important to note in this juncture that the supply chain management has to be functional and there has to be individual appointed that would monitor the operation such as maintaining the stocks, having adequate data of the supply and also place order as per the demand (Preisleret al. 2015). This will enable the stock to be in order and also ensure a significant success in the forecasting procedure.
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Weeks
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Inventory Strategy
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Quantity (Gal)
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Contingency strategy
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Week 1
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In the first week, the managers can actually schedule the supply and ask the suppliers to negotiate.
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730
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Create a wide range of suppliers that would help the company in times of emergency.
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Week 2
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The manager can provide additional demand to the suppliers and provide a budget that suits both the parties.
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840
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Create two budgets with which the manager can negotiate with the suppliers.
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Week 3
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Manage the existing supply as per the demand.
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680
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Create a contingency plan that would help the manager to measure the existing supply with the demand.
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Week 4
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Present a data involved report to the suppliers that explains the supply chain management from the end of the service station ensuring him supply and demand management.
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760
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Consult the operation managers about the entire function of the entire week and recognize the loopholes that are present in the procedure.
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Table 1: Forecasting procedure
The above table explains the forecasting procedure that has been selected for the service station. This specific procedure has been selected as it provides details of the inventory management along with the quantity of the four gas-products that are used. Based on the understanding derived from the works of Williamset al. (2015), it is evident that thedetails present in the forecasting procedure can be helpful for the managers to handle records later in the following months. The weekly forecasting procedure also includes contingency strategy for the inventory functions so that there is always a plan B for any failed move.
Question 2. How should promotions, holidays, or other such periods where fuel usage rates deviate form normal patterns be handled in the forecast?
Answer: The Contingency strategy might also include such risk management functions where the fuel consumption rate deviates. This situation can be evaded by including promotional offers to the consumers so that on an average the consumption level rises from actual consumption rate in normal days. As opined by Arcos-Avileset al. (2017), this will ensure that during the holiday period the consumption rate is not affected and is balanced. This strategy can prove to be beneficial as it can be used in the long run without many obstacles as it include consumers in the system as well. Gas and fuel being one of the most used natural resource which has direct connection with transport and other machinery is widely in demand and this demand is not affected much by any circumstances. The promotional offers can prove to be very profitable and also act as a contingency strategy.
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